"Hameed, I need to know about Nigeria."

Nigerians can be corrupt, chaotic, and incompetent. But Nigerians are also amazingly innovative, and the years of struggle has taught us to be resilient.

Hi guys,

Hope you’re well. I’m doing okay, Alhamdulillah.

I write this at 8:50 am on a bright Sunday morning, and in great spirits too. I’ve had a lot of (pleasant) engagements and interactions with my people over the past few days, and I look forward to more in the coming weeks.

I know if I’m being honest that some of it is unsustainable in the long run, but as Citibank’s former CEO, Chuck Prince, said just before the 2008 financial crisis, “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” So I will continue ‘dancing’ and see what happens when my metaphorical music stops. 😂

Anyhoo, let’s get to it.

————

About a month ago, I received a LinkedIn connection request from a Western European alum of my Master’s program who was from another year. While I didn’t know him before, I assumed that he was either

1. connecting with people just for the sake of it, or

2. reaching out to discuss job applications/career prospects, as I had done with many alums as well not too long ago

Of course, I accepted. Almost immediately after, he sent a message that he wanted to speak over a short call. What about? Nigeria.

I’m like, what?! You want to speak to me about Nigeria? Okay, sure I’ll take the call. 😂

After introductions and pleasantries, the conversation started with something like this.

O: Hameed, I need to know about Nigeria.

H: Okay…Do you have a job offer or business opportunity in Nigeria? What inspired you to make this call?

O: I have heard so many interesting things about Nigeria over the past few weeks, and I need to talk to someone from there. You're the only person I know from Nigeria, so I thought maybe you could help.

H: Sounds good, I'm all ears.

O: First, this all started when I read Goldman Sachs Investment Research report on the future of global economies. It predicted that Nigeria would have the world's fifth-largest economy by 2075…Also, I recently had dinner with two people who are Economists and Researchers at Netflix and Google, and they said both companies have similar projections and are making bets on Nigeria as they expect the country to be super important in the coming decades. But the little I understand about Nigeria is a lot of corruption and millions of people in poverty, so I'm struggling to understand how it all makes sense! Could you please shed more light?

O and I had a very interesting conversation, and I spent a lot of time sharing some personal context as a Nigerian, including some of the things our country has going for it, as well as the numerous challenges, risks, and barriers to the country's prosperity.

If you're reading this, then you're probably well aware of the problems in Nigeria, so I thought to share a few potentially positive shining lights for the coming decades.

1 - Our population growth is off the charts

While many people do not agree on the exact population of Nigeria, they all agree on one thing - it is growing at an exceptional pace!

According to Google, Nigeria's population was 45 million in 1960. By 2020, that number had changed to 208 million, a 362% increase! Compared with the population growth of other countries,

• US: From 181 million in 1960 to 330 million in 2020 - an 82% increase

• UK: From 52 million in 1960 to 67 million in 2020 - a 29% increase

• Russia: From 120 million in 1960 to 144 million in 2020 - a 20% increase

• China: From 667 million in 1960 to 1.4 billion in 2020 - a 110% increase

• India: From 446 million in 1960 to 1.4 billion in 2020 - a 214% increase

One might wonder, isn't that only for the past 60 years? Shouldn't we care more about the future? Well, to project into the future, we need to look at the current fertility rate in a country. In Nigeria, the average number of births per woman is 5.08.

What does this number look like for other countries?

• US: 1.78

• UK: 1.61

• Russia: 1.82

• China: 1.71

• India: 2.14

So, in a direct comparison with one of the world's largest young populations (India), the average Nigerian woman produces over 2 times more babies!

Regardless of which macroeconomic or population analysis you do, you come to the same conclusion. Nigeria is going to keep growing. And in an ideal world (very big caveat), more babies born could lead to a larger workforce, more people to tax, more opportunities created, more innovation, more trade, and a more prosperous nation.

And while this will likely come with its own challenges, just as India's economy overtook the UK a few months ago, it is only a matter of time before the world has to pay more attention to Nigeria.

Look at the 2075 details - Image from Goldman Sachs Investment Research

2 - We're a brilliant, resilient people

To whoever is reading this, you know this point already. Nigerians can be corrupt, chaotic, and incompetent. But Nigerians are also amazingly innovative, and the years of struggle has taught us to be resilient.

Whether it's the roadside barber 'tapping’ electricity from PHCN (not that this is correct) or the USSD that enables Nigerian banks complete transactions for people without access to the internet, we always find new ways to solve difficult problems.

And we're remarkably resilient - US, UK, and Europe have been screaming and shouting because of inflation numbers in the 8 to 10% range over the past year, but the last time Nigeria's inflation rate was below 8% was in 2007!

If we put aside our petty differences and focus on putting our talent, brilliance, and resilience to good use, then there's no limit to what we can achieve collectively.

3 - The political class will change, hopefully for the better

Fortunately or unfortunately, many people across the globe are vaguely familiar with Nigeria's reputation for corruption, especially in its political and leadership class.

Here's the good news - that will change! As I am apolitical and have no vested interest in BAT, PO, Atiku, or anyone else, this has nothing to do with the upcoming elections. Anybody who has eyes can see that the majority of Nigeria's political class has been in power (or close to power) for over 30 years.

But by 2053, merely 30 years from today, most of Nigeria's current leadership structure would be dead or have limited influence. If still alive, Buhari would be 110 years old, Obasanjo would be 115, BAT would be 100, PO would be 91, Atiku would be 106, Kwankwaso would be 97, El-Rufai would be 93, and many many more.

While it is unclear whether the new generation of leaders that takes over from the current ruling class would be better or worse, an optimistic outlook (big jump, I know) is that corruption would be reduced (e.g. technology efforts making it easier to find ghost workers on government payroll), mass media would continue to increase transparency (think of the impact of BudgIT, Stears, etc), and our newer governments would ultimately make better policies (related to security, education, etc) that elevate the nation.

————

I only shared a few points above, but there are many other potential headwinds (such as more japa leading to increased remittances, higher oil prices in the medium term benefitting the government's finances, and higher income for professionals doing remote work), mean that there is a good possibility that Nigeria's economy is indeed one of the world's largest by the end of the century.

As to whether that prediction will come to life, I guess we shall have to wait and see.

Caveats:

1. Gdp (or the size of a country's economy) is not all that matters. A much better measure of a country's economic performance is Gdp per capita or average household income, which determines the lifestyle of the average person in a country. While India's economy indeed overtook the UK last year, the quality of life of the average Briton >>> the average Indian.

2. Many of the things that Nigeria has going for it in the coming decades could potentially be challenges as well e.g. more population could lead to more unemployment and poverty, and more japa could lead to fewer skilled professionals available to run the country effectively. But I chose to focus on the positives for today, especially as we all know the negatives already.

** Jara content:

أَلَمْ تَرَ أَنَّ ٱلْفُلْكَ تَجْرِى فِى ٱلْبَحْرِ بِنِعْمَتِ ٱللَّهِ لِيُرِيَكُم مِّنْ ءَايَـٰتِهِۦٓ ۚ إِنَّ فِى ذَٰلِكَ لَـَٔايَـٰتٍۢ لِّكُلِّ صَبَّارٍۢ شَكُورٍۢ

Do you not see that the ships sail smoothly through the sea by the grace of Allah so that He may show you some of His signs? Surely in this are signs for whoever is steadfast, grateful.

- Chapter 31 verse 31

Have a great week. ✨