You're not smart, you're just lucky.

We’re rarely as talented as we think.

Hi guys,

Hope you are well. I’m doing okay, Alhamdulillah.

Today I’m tayaddd. I write this on a moving train at 12:20pm on Sunday afternoon but I just want to rest lol. It has been a long (though fun 😄) weekend and I now need to eat good food, sleep for a while, and look for the energy to put in a few hours of work before tomorrow comes.

But I also figure that if I don’t attempt to publish soon, then there is a high probability I will be trying to push this out at 11pm. So lezz do a quick one.

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Over the past week or two, I have been reading Nick Magguili’s Just Keep Buying, an excellent book on investing from one of the best personal finance writers I know. I have written and talked about him multiple times lol so you probably know him at this point. 😅

Anyhoo, while reading the book, I came across an interesting story.

Back in 2013, Robert Graith published The Cuckoo’s Calling, a crime fiction novel tracking the mystery of a murder in Mayfair. It is a well-written book, with very good initial reviews.

“The work of a master storyteller” - Daily Telegraph

“Unputdownable...Irresistible” - Sunday Times

“One of the most unique and compelling detectives I've come across in years” - Mark Billingham

By any objective measure, it was a high-quality book. However, it sold only 1,500 copies and was ranked 4,709th on Amazon’s bestseller list. After some time, information leaked that “Robert Graith” was a pen-name, and the book had actually been written by JK Rowling, the famed author of the Harry Potter series.

Almost immediately, the book shot to the top of Amazon’s bestseller list with a 507,000% increase in sales!

Amazing. But nothing had changed. The content was the same, the length was the same, and the publisher was the same.

So why did the value of the book go up many times over?

Well, because it was ‘a JK Rowling book’.

Strike, a TV series adaptation of The Cuckoo’s Calling by the BBC

The point Nick was trying to make in his book (and I am trying to make in today’s short newsletter) is that luck and initial positions plays a large role in the outcomes of our efforts. When things are going great, we sometimes have the tendency to believe in our own talent. But we’re rarely as talented as we think.

And when we underperform, we look at those who appear to be doing much better and assume that they have more skill or expertise than we do.

But if there is anything I have learnt from my recent years of international educational and professional experiences, it is that some of the seemingly exceptional people we admire from far are perhaps not as exceptional as we might have imagined.

Oxford grad? Meh.

Google Engineer? Meh.

Stanford MBA? Meh.

Don’t get me wrong.

Going to a prestigious school or working for a prestigious firm is almost always a great idea (and I am a big advocate for doing so should the opportunity arise), but I have found that the average person in these circles does not have a significant IQ advantage over the average Medicine undergraduate in UI.

While they are certainly talented and driven, their abilities to access those opportunities are also a function of things out of their control. Things like:

• going to an exclusive British preparatory school for getting into Oxbridge

• having visited 10+ countries previously and being able to sell an ‘international outlook’

• already having local experience and not requiring visa sponsorship in the job search process

etc etc are just a few examples of headstarts that many of the young people that we admire have on us. And for the average person reading this newsletter, you have a significant academic x professional headstart over the kids in Syria, Afghanistan or even some rural villages in Nigeria.

So what am I saying?

As you go on to achieve academic and professional success, do not overestimate your own talent or look down on the people ‘beneath’ you. You have probably been more fortunate than them in the cards you were dealth with.

And as you read about the “Forbes 30 Under 30” (or whatever metric it is people use to compare success these days), remember that they have been lucky too. You are probably just as talented as they are, if not more.

** Jara content:

قَالَ إِنَّمَآ أُوتِيتُهُۥ عَلَىٰ عِلْمٍ عِندِىٓ ۚ أَوَلَمْ يَعْلَمْ أَنَّ ٱللَّهَ قَدْ أَهْلَكَ مِن قَبْلِهِۦ مِنَ ٱلْقُرُونِ مَنْ هُوَ أَشَدُّ مِنْهُقُوَّةًۭ وَأَكْثَرُ جَمْعًۭا ۚ وَلَا يُسْـَٔلُ عَن ذُنُوبِهِمُ ٱلْمُجْرِمُونَ

He (Qarun) said, “I was only given it because of knowledge I have.” Did he not know that Allah had destroyed before him of generations those who were greater than him in power and greater in accumulation [of wealth]? But the criminals, about their sins, will not be asked.

- Surah 28 verse 78

Have a great week. ✨