Stop looking for a job. You will not find one.

Going by the demographics, Nigeria is a ticking time bomb.

Hi guys,

Hope you are well. I’m doing okay, Alhamdulillah.

I had a very fast week filled with a lottt of learning and working. But it was also a week filled with uncertainty as my accommodation situation was in limbo.

Alhamdulillah, I finally moved to a new apartment yesterday. It was the eighth time in the past year that I carried all my luggage, foodstuff, books, and ‘eru’ to a new ‘home’. After experiencing a nomadic lifestyle to some degree, I am glad to finally have stability for the foreseeable future. In sha Allah.

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Hahaha, click bait title.

I typically avoid talking about political topics on this newsletter, but this one has been on my mind for a while. I decided to proceed only after convincing myself that it is an economic discussion, not a political one.

Going by the demographics, Nigeria is a ticking time bomb.

While the above graph is important, it is not my focus.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria had an unemployment rate of 33.3% as at March of this year. One in three people in Nigeria’s labor market does not have a job. Seeing as our working population is about 70 million people, we need to produce jobs for 23.33 million people. And fast!

And with a median age of just 18.4, that problem is only going to keep compounding. In the next few decades, tens of millions of young Nigerians will enter the labor market hoping and praying to find a job.

But let's ignore tomorrow’s problem for a minute and focus on the one in front of us. 23 million people. Who will hire them?

Answer 1: Government should create jobs, it is their responsibility

We hear this much too often, and frankly it’s not even realistic.

By every important economic metric for measuring wealth, Nigeria is a poor country. So from where will the money come to finance an increase to our already bloated civil service expenditure?

Let us assume for one moment that we had a government that functioned at the level of optimization of the US, which hires just over 1% of its domestic workforce. If we replicated this strategy, about only about 700,000 Nigerians would be employed by the civil service, which means at least 22.6 million youth would still be unemployed. And this even assumes there is nobody on the government’s current payroll.

As you can see, increased government hiring will not solve the problem.

Answer 2: Forget about government, the private sector needs to do more

This answer I find a little more interesting.

But how much can the private sector do?

Let us take a look at the world’s largest private employer, Walmart, which hires 2.2 million people across the world and 1.3 million people in the US, its largest market.

Someone might say, ‘Perfect! Let us look at companies like Walmart and replicate by building our own Jumia, Dangote refinery, etc. The government can only do so much, private sector should step up!’

In theory, this sounds very nice. But in reality, it is a flawed argument.

Walmart is 59 years old and has a market capitalization of $424.4 billion. Meanwhile, the entire Nigerian Stock Exchange (MTN + Dangote + Nestle + GTB + literally every publicly traded company in Nigeria) has a market cap of ₦28.26 trillion, about $68.1 billion.

Let me repeat this. By market capitalization, Walmart alone is more than 5 times the size of all the public companies in Nigeria combined!

Do you now see why I say we are a poor country? 😂😂

So even if we were able to produce a Walmart (which could take 59 years and is frankly impossible from a market size perspective), then it only would help reduce our unemployment burden by 1.3 million people.

So how will the remaining 21.3 million people find salvation?

Option A: Japa

With young people, this is a very popular option.

And if you are someone with eyes to see and ears to listen, you can hardly blame them. For the average educated young person who aspires to professional achievement, there are way more opportunities outside the shores of our dear nation than within.

It is sad, but it is true.

Option B: Stay as a Skilled professional

The most feasible option for most people. As terrible as the country’s job market is from an aggregate perspective, highly skilled professionals will always land on their feet.

I have never met a CFA holder who was unemployed. Doctors may complain (as they have the right to do) about late salaries, work conditions, poor facilities in the hospitals, etcm but for the most part, they will find a job and perhaps even a fulfilling career. A Senior Software Engineer in Nigeria today is probably worth more than his or her weight in gold.

For the very few people who by skill or credibility (education) achieve this ‘elite professional’ status, Nigeria’s unemployment statistics will remain just that - statistics.

Option C: Entrepreneurship

In my view, this is by far the best answer. We are producing far more people than any formalized job sectors can take in. Either more and more people go into entrepreneurship (building solutions, engaging in trading, etc) or more and more people will be on the street.

So if you are a young person for whom ‘elite professional’ status is currently unattainable and japa doors have refused to open, please take matters into your own hands. I realize how hypocritical advocating for entrepreneurship might sound, seeing as I am (and have almost always been) in full-time engagement myself.

But I can read the writing on the wall. I hope this helps you to read it too.

** Jara content:

Thanks to MFW, I recently watched an amazing interview of Khalifa Muhammad Sanusi by CFA Society of Nigeria. Well worth your time.

Have a great week. 💫