Long-term games and the dilemma of Funso Williams' killers

All returns in life, whether in wealth, relationships, or knowledge, come from compound interest.

Hi guys,

Hope you are well. I'm doing okay, Alhamdulillah.

Let's imagine that Ade and Chika were arrested on Friday night by the Nigerian police force for the murder of Funsho Williams. The policemen have no strong evidence to keep them in prison forever, but have received an anonymous tip and some circumstantial evidence to interrogate them for a while and see if they crack.

The police are highly incentivized to see them confess and close a case that has been unsolved for more than a decade. Ade and Chika on the other hand are super confused. They thought they had covered all bases and cannot believe there were people still on their trail after all this time. They are now upstanding members of society, and an announcement of their guilt would send shock waves through the business and political society.

Now let's imagine that they were arrested separately in their respective Ikoyi houses, have not been in contact with each other in years, and each of them has no clue that the other one was also arrested. Meanwhile, they have been brutalized by the police, kept in solitary confinement, and denied food, water, and sunlight for the last 36 hours.

Good? good.

This morning, they are dragged out by the policemen to separate interrogation rooms where each one has a Commissioner of police waiting. Then they have the following conversation.

Commissioner: Good morning Oga.

Ade: Morning. I want my lawyer.

Commissioner: You're not getting any lawyer.

Ade: Then I'm not talking to you.

Commissioner: Should I tell these people to beat you again?

Ade: Do you know who I am?

Commissioner: See we don't care o, you can die here and nobody will find out. Bigger men than you have died here, so think well before you talk. Are you ready to die?

Ade: **keeps quiet

Commissioner: Better. We have proof that you were responsible for the murder of Funsho Williams. Your friend Chika is in the next room having this same conversation with my colleague right now. You have two choices.

Commissioner: One, you can confess to the crime and implicate Chika. He will be the scapegoat and get 20 years in prison. We will say he coerced you into it and give you only 2 years since you helped in solving the case.

Commissioner: Or two, you can continue to do stronghead and keep quiet. Chika will get the 2-year deal, and you will rot in Kirikiri for 20 years. Think about it and I'll call for your decision tonight.

** I know this example is not realistic in Nigeria, I'm just using it to paint a picture. Here, it is much more likely that the Commissioner of Police is neighbors with Chika/Ade and their children are in the same boarding school in the UK.

What do you think will happen?

If both Chika and Ade were to keep quiet and insist on their innocence, then they would both walk away scot-free since the police do not have strong enough evidence to detain and prosecute them. But do you know what always happens?

They always take the deal. Why? Think about it from Ade's perspective for a minute. If Chika confesses, he better confess so he doesn't spend 20 years in prison. If Chika doesn't confess, he better confess so he can be the one to spend only 2 years and get out. So Ade's safest best is to confess because he can guarantee the outcome for himself. He will spend 2 years for sure and that's it. But if he doesn't confess, he will spend 0 or 20. That risk is too big.

In summary, they both take the deal.

This is called a prisoner's dilemma game. It is a super powerful tool in business x game theory x economics that I just learnt about last year.

But why do both prisoners always take the deal when they can both go free if they remain quiet?

Because there is no trust.

And how do you build trust?

By playing long-term games.

In Naval's iconic ‘How To Get Rich without getting lucky’ tweetstorm, my favourite takeaway is this.

Play long-term games with long-term people. All returns in life, whether in wealth, relationships, or knowledge, come from compound interest.

Our generation is wired to live on short feedback loops. We push out an Instagram post, hoping to get feedback in seconds. If there is no like after several minutes, then either IG is down or there is something wrong with the post.

Our business leaders are permanently checking the stock price. Did it go up today? Did it go down? What can we do to drive it up? Our bitcoin investors have become enslaved as well. Up by 37%? Yes. Down by 12%. Shet, let's check again in 30 minutes.

Our loverboys and girls are struggling. Why put in the energy and commitment to make a relationship work when there is Tinder? Why bother to listen and apologize to one person when you can send some risky texts knowing other people will bite?

It has never been more difficult to play long-term games with long-term people. But that is where the secret sauce is.

If Ade and Chika were brothers, it suddenly becomes much more likely that they both reject the deal. Because they are in a lifelong game, Ade will be unable to look his mother or Chika's children in the eyes if he sent his brother to jail. The relative permanence of their relationship suddenly makes the outcome favourable.

Imagine you were engaging a carpenter for a job. In one instance, it is just to build a cupboard and go. In the other one, you want him to deliver a cupboard monthly for your furniture x interior design business. The carpenter's attitudes towards you in these scenarios become drastically different.

In the first one, he might decide to ignore a few of your calls, lie about his Aunty's funeral to quickly do a bigger job for someone else, and maybe even deliver the wrong cupboard and run away with the down payment.

But in the second one, he suddenly becomes more consistent. His family members no longer 'die’ so regularly. He picks his calls on time. NEPA did not cut his house off. His son was not in an accident. He might even do some jobs without asking for a down payment.

This is the power of a long-term game. Because the value of the game x relationship is heavily skewed to future interactions, both parties are more likely to do what is best for everybody, not what is best for each party today.

This is why smart companies give employees stock options that vest over time, so they are motivated by the company's long-term performance (long game), versus by their monthly salary (short game).

As you prepare for a new week, I hope you think about the investments you make in your work, relationships, school, or whatever else and are intentional about identifying and playing the long-term games.

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If you found this newsletter useful, please share it with your friends. Have them read it and subscribe. I like to share personal stories and life lessons I am learning. They will be super random, but common themes will include business, personal development, human relationships, and Islam.

Gracias, and see you around.

Hameed

** Jara:

"I look at life as a man playing multiple rounds of a card game. If you cheat, no one will want to play with you again. If you play and you lose well, you can always play again. If you maintain that mentality, knowing you are playing multiple rounds of card that will last a lifetime, then you become willing to let some things go." - Iyin Aboyeji

Have a great week. ✨