Inverting your failed relationships and playing biased games

If we were all to enter a beauty pageant for Obinna’s body, then Obinna would always win.

Hi guys,

Hope you are doing well. I’m doing okay, Alhamdulillah.

Yesterday morning, I was lying in bed with my blanket over my body, curtains drawn, and room lights on trying to simulate night time (more on this later) when something hit me.

I have taken exactly 28 covid-19 tests.

Well, I didn't know it was 28 for sure, but I thought I must have taken it about 30 times. So I whipped open my laptop, loaded my calendar, and began to count. Twenty-eight.

25 times I have gone to a testing booth (hospital only thrice) with a mask on, prepared to have something go up my nose to test for a virus that did not exist (in my world) this time last year.

I remember when Nigeria began to take the coronavirus seriously. It was in March of 2020, and I was somewhere in the East looking for any excuse to return to Lagos. And then I woke up one morning to (what appeared to be) excellent news. Due to security concerns as the oyinbo people's virus was officially present in our country, everywhere was shutting down.

It felt like a holiday. I would get some time off, take things slow for a couple of days or weeks, and all would go back to normal. After arriving Lagos, I even remember thinking of going for lunch or something with friends, before my sister advised me against it.

For many of us, the last one year has been something out of a movie. Lifestyles that were absolutely unimaginable have become the norm, and the things we previously could not do without have become unthinkable.

I like to think (read: hope) that we are approaching the later days of the pandemic. That the vaccines will work. That communities will achieve herd immunity. That we do not get newer and newer variants.

In sha Allah.

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For today's newsletter, I was not quite sure was to write about. One or two topics came to mind, but they didn't quite fit together. I wasn’t sure what to do until I remembered David Perell’s advice.

It doesn’t all have to fit.

Sometimes the beauty is in the randomness. With that in mind, there are two things running through my head today.

Inverting our way forward

Charlie Munger is super big on inversion (and now I am too). The idea behind it is simple. Instead of optimizing for success, the smarter way to solve a problem is by optimizing for avoiding failure.

What do I mean?

As parents of newborn children, we think tend to think, how can I protect my child today? But that's the wrong question. The right (inverted) question is, how can I hurt my child today?

If you wrote out a list of ways to hurt your baby, you would probably have:

1. Drop them on the staircase.

2. Run out of supplies or forget to feed them.

3. Injure them with a sharp object.

…and many more. Based on this, you could decide to:

1. Cover the wooden/tiled staircase with a carpet.

2. Always store an extra week's supply of baby food x set up daily alarms for feeding times.

3. Baby-proof all parts of the house the baby has access to - no cutlery in bottom drawers, etc.

Get it yet?

One more example. Let’s assume you were about entering a new relationship and really wanted it to work out. Instead of seeking out all the plentiful advice about building a successful relationship, you could take out time instead to write out the most likely reasons why your relationship would fail.

It might look something like this:

1. We both have big egos, none of us likes apologizing.

2. I really don’t like his Dad, that man’s wahala is too much.

3. He goes to church and all, but he's not really spiritual. He hasn’t really read the bible and doesn’t think it is all that important.

…and many more. You might then decide to:

1. Force yourself to apologize first. He has big head but he’s worth it.

2. Give the old man a chance. Have an in-depth conversation with the man and see if he’s not as bad as you thought.

3. Make the spirituality thing a deal-breaker. ‘Fix up or I can’t do this anymore.’

You get it now. Forget about optimizing for success.

Optimize for avoiding failure.

Playing biased games

I once listened to someone say that if you met the most beautiful woman on earth, she would still be able to point out 5 things that were ‘wrong’ with her body. I think it’s pretty interesting how all 7 billion of us have absolutely unique features.

For some, it’s a beard with a mustache but no connectors. Or a birth mark in an odd spot. Or one ear very slightly bigger than the other. Or six fingers instead of five. Or a gap space not in front, but in the back between molar teeth.

So if we were all to enter a beauty pageant for Obinna’s body, then Obinna would always win.

Why?

Because the game is biased to Obinna.

It is quite literally made for him.

And just like we have such physical attributes that few other people possess, we have the same in many ways for psychological x intellectual x emotional x whatever else skills.

And if you are fortunate enough to figure out what your features are, then you can decide to only play the games biased for you, and win over and over again. It’s pretty amazing.

Anybody can be a doctor in the UK. But how many glasses-wearing, immigrant-looking, lovable face, studied-in-Cambridge, fun-loving, young, male, Muslim doctors are able to balance a medical career with a YouTube channel focused on Tech, productivity, and lifestyle?

Image from studenthunt

As you can probably tell, not very many. So Ali Abdaal is able to build a very successful YouTube channel (with some videos garnering 5m+ views) because he is playing a game rigged for him!

When you play a game biased for you to win, every shot goes into the net.

So how does this key into your decision making?

If a friend told me he had a fully funded opportunity to go study in Brazil, I would likely discourage him from accepting.

** Side note: I literally know nothing about Brazil. Below may not be entirely accurate.

Why?

1. He probably would not have work authorization, making it difficult to get a job there after school.

2. He does not speak Portuguese so is isolated and cannot build very many meaningful relationships.

3. His Brazilian school does not have an international reputation that will open other doors if he leaves Brazil.

So the game is rigged against him!

The takeaway is clear: look for games that are biased in your favor, then play them again, and again, and again.

As you begin a new week, I hope you use inversion to optimize for avoiding failure and remember to only play the biased games.

‘I don’t play a game where other people are wise and I am stupid. I look for a place where I’m wise and they are stupid. And believe me, it works better.’ - Charlie Munger

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Breaking regular format to remind you to subscribe and share.

Pliss, ejor, edakun.

Hameed

** Jara content:

My last few weeks were particularly difficult. I was fortunate enough to come across the dua of Prophet Musa AS (Moses) after he unintentionally killed a man and ran from Egypt.

رَبِّ إِنِّى لِمَآ أَنزَلْتَ إِلَىَّ مِنْ خَيْرٍۢ فَقِيرٌۭ

“My Lord, indeed I am, for whatever good You would send down to me, in need.”

Have a great week. ✨